A “black swan event” is random and unexpected. Popularized by Nassim Taleb in his book “The Black Swan,” which describes an event (such as the last economic meltdown) as an unpredictable event. I ask, are the repeat real estate crises of every 10-12 years unpredictable, or a bevy of black swans migrating in wedge formation? […]
Stats can be troublesome. Knowing the why, the what, and the how of statistics can help rescue the appraisal profession. Continued misuse and misunderstanding will help bury it. Let’s look at these three questions. We look at misused words, statistics, and the opportunity. First: “The main problem with statistics is words.” Statistics is the study […]
We considered one cause of the Great Recession. This was the perversion of the very definition of the value. In the sociology of ‘groupthink’ (where the group is wrong, but everyone says it’s ok), Dunning-Kruger gave us another cause. (There are more to come – stay tuned!) In a good world, a profession, legislators, administrators, […]
We’ve heard that Fannie and Freddie are developing new forms. So, what might the next 1004 form look like? Will it require three comps, two listings, and a pending? Will it require a full data download, or a description of search parameters? Will it still even be designed to fit on 8 ½ inch paper? […]
We’re told to “support” our adjustments. We hear words like “prove” your adjustments. . . as if there were some magic formula which can give an exact, correct, and absolutely true number. It used to be so easy. . . Our trainer gave us a sheet with the “right” adjustments. Simple. USPAP Standards Rule 1-1 […]
Why does a hybrid appraisal work better? What are the benefits? Who benefits? Who pays? A hybrid appraisal, as it has been proposed, separates the field work from the desk work. The assumption is that an appraiser is good at filling out the forms, while another “cheaper faster” person can do the property inspection. Also, […]
This is Part Four in a series on Hybrid Appraisal. Be sure to read Part One, Part Two and Part Three. The term “hybrid appraisal” (as it’s currently used), means that the appraiser sits at a desk, while someone else (not an appraiser) looks at the property. It appears that the non-appraiser may or may […]
We read articles and advertisements on how to prove an adjustment. Is this possible? How wonderful it would be. To prove an adjustment, just push a button and bam! Out comes the correct answer. How could we have we missed this? Of course, if such a simplistic and exact answer was possible – anyone could […]
Bank regulators are nearing a decision to raise residential real estate transactions appraisal threshold to $400,000 from $250,000, for certain transactions. Perhaps it should be set to $2million, or $5million. It strikes me that we have two separate taxpayer regulatory/administrative/quasi-governmental organizations working in opposition. On one hand we have the Appraisal Subcommittee and The Appraisal […]
We have been taught that appraisal solved one problem: the opinion of value. We were taught an “appraisal process” (now a “Valuation Process”). The process is called a procedure. It goes like this:[1] Identify the problem Decide on your scope of work Collect the data and describe the property Analyze the data (include market analysis) […]
There’s some evidence that appraisal as a marketable service is finished. Several things point in this direction. First, we must clarify what is an appraisal for purposes of this blog. It’s an opinion of value. An appraisal is a valuation service provided by an appraiser in an appraisal practice, representing that he/she complies with USPAP […]
You did a bad—a USPAP violation! They said so! Are they right? A violation. A strong word. Clear and succinct. Easily understandable by anyone. Of course. Black letters on white. Where in USPAP does it identify (for real property) what is a violation or not? We can look at three parts of USPAP; First there […]
Digital disruption is what happens when new data technology and new business models crash into the old goods-and-services ways of doing things. But of course, this cannot possibly affect appraisal. After all, appraisal is about judgment, sharpened by years of experience, education and training. But it’s worth a look. Is it possible? Several causes of […]
Appraisers have been taught to first analyze the subject property. Is this correct? What would an economist do? Would she analyze the property, or figure out the market? Well yes, an economist would try to figure out a market. First, it’s important to consider what type of market we are talking about. What are the […]
If you pick comps the old way, you may be violating USPAP every day! The old way of selecting data worked well for the old days. Gather seven or eight that look good, go look at them, make a couple of phone calls, and pick four or five for your report. That was the way […]