# The Analogue Blog

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## Collateral Doggerel or Lender Mender?

Doggerel is defined as “a comic verse of irregular measure.” It seems we have three possible types of collateral assurance: Appraiser judgment AVM proprietary algorithm Evidence based data science The first relies on subjective appraiser judgment of “comps.” The second relies on secret proprietary algorithms. The third combines the most robust and most useful information […]

## R U Ready for the Wave?

There is a lot of talk about the wave of technology changing appraisal. What can you do? How can you be ahead of the wave? Is there hope? A wave of new technology means new tools: statistics, deep learning, big data, computation, data science, and brain-machine interface. But they need people. People qualified to use […]

## There is Only ONE Approach to Value

How can this be? Only One? USPAP says there are three approaches. Licensing classes are organized around three approaches. There used to be “eight methods,” (Frederick Babcock, 1924), then seven (1932), then three (1960). Is it time for ONE approach? Perhaps the most important lesson today, to learn from the Babcock history, was his belief. […]

## Residential or Commercial — or Data Science?

For the Stats, Graphs, and Data Science1 class, we are often asked if the material is oriented to residential or commercial property. The question itself assumes that the property type defines the logic of analysis. Data science is the science of data. The class itself is about methodology, technology, and cognitology. Whew! The question about […]

## Thinking About Thinking?

Damn, isn’t just plain thinking enough? Now he sez I gotta start thinking about thinking too?! Ted Whitmer was teaching his AI “Third Party Provider” class in Houston last week, the day before the Stats, Graphs, and Data Science1 class, for the AI Chapter’s annual 28 hour recertification week. I was privileged to drop in […]

## Three Comps is Enough?

In an earlier post we noted that the ideal comparable data set is the complete CMS, the Competitive Market Segment. Some readers disagreed. A primary reason for the use of all sales which competed directly with the subject property is that it improves the reliability of the value prediction. Deena Allotta noted that presenting three […]

## Reliability: A Desirable Goal?

Every profession I know that deals with numbers also provides some estimate of the reliability of the result. An engineer would not say “the most probable life of this bridge is 87 years.” The engineer might provide a minimum, or a range, or some indication of how reliable the estimated life is. My new journal […]

## Appraising After Catastrophic Events?

Events happen. Things change. Events present opportunities to help others . . . We get so used to appraising under normal conditions, it is easy to forget the basic assumptions we must consider each and every assignment. We have always emphasized the importance of price index models to establish exact time adjustments. In Stats, Graphs […]

## Don’t R-gue With Me?

The appraisal profession is hamstrung. Who did this to us? Looking for cause? When things feel and act difficult, it is only human to look at cause. It is them who create problems. If only they would see things our way. If we took a poll, who is it that is causing us the biggest […]

## Whatever Happened to “Statistics”?

Most of us grew up learning two types of statistics — descriptive and inferential. Descriptive statistics provide summaries of any group, like the mean, the median, the range, the variance. It only got hard when we had to square a bunch of numbers, add them up, and then get out a slide rule (prior to […]

## How Many Comps Are Enough?

Quiz: How many comps are “just right?” First we must ask: What is a comparable? We can take two attitudes: 1) “I know a good comp when I see it!” or; 2) What does our accepted literature say? The Appraisal of Real Estate says . . . “The data used for comparison … should come […]

## Three Erroneous Zones

Problem solving works best if you can give the error a name. Errors are best handled if you can clearly identify the type of mistake. In the Fall of 2013, The Appraisal Journal, published my paper, Common Statistical Errors and Mistakes: Valuation and Reliability. It identifies a couple of clever and popular “statistical” errors. (Pssss. . . […]

## Myths, Fallacies, and Foibles #4: Value = Market Price = Market Value?

Market value: easy to see, easy to reckon and easy to “support.” How could this possibly be a problem? We recognize that there are other definitions of value. Many. The question we ask: Is market value always value in the market? After the last economic crisis started, I looked at the standard definition used for […]

## The History of Appraisal Data

“The good is often the enemy of the best.” (Bill W.) Traditional appraisal has been good. Up to just a few years ago, even at predictive methods and collateral risk conferences, I often heard the words: A real appraisal is the ‘gold standard’. What happened? Did appraisers suddenly get worse? I don’t think so. Appraisers […]

## The Problem with Statistics

Sez the “anti-statistics” guy! Statistics has been touted as an appraisal tool for a while. For many years, while heavily involved in the Appraisal Institute, I became a statistical evangelist and people would run from me. I’d come to believe that there was a gap in appraiser education. I presented a (relatively unnoticed) paper for […]