As an appraiser, it is time to look forward to this next year. For me, it seems looking forward always means looking backward. Oh well.
Perhaps life is just like the appraisal process. We are asked to predict forward—based on the past market sales. Sometimes I wonder if a present even exists. Just as soon as I see the present, it becomes the past. I can only see what I did in the past, to create the future. This is the basis of the “resoluted” philosophy we discovered last week. (The “New Year’s Resoluted” blog).
In short what matters is not what you promise yourself January 4. It is what you did December 27 that matters. The concept is to create your past to assure your future. Each day, each hour, each minute—create your past. Even if it is a few seconds of attention to doing what is important, instead of doing what is urgent. Create a past right now.
If you truly wish to continue to “appraise” in the future ask yourself: “What did I do one minute ago to prepare for the impending change?” One minute ago!
So how do I start? Simple.
- Admit that change is coming, we cannot stop it.
- Come to believe that we have valuable skills, which will be needed.
- Make a decision to learn about how valuation and property skills will be needed in the future.
- Take a personal inventory of the skills we have, and those we need.
- Clarify what needs to be learned, and put this to paper (no more than three new competencies).
- Do something right now, ten seconds, to start. Do not judge. Do not evaluate. Just do it. Now!
Did you create your past?
Thank you.
January 9, 2019 @ 7:05 am
Fabulous post. Something positive for a change! Thank you.
January 9, 2019 @ 9:24 am
I really liked this blog post, great points to think about/take action on. Thanks George.
January 9, 2019 @ 9:34 am
George, this topic reminds me that one year, I added up all the values on reports issued out of my office. I did this to get an idea of how much contingent liability I might have over the next 1-3 years. The total put me in shock, it was $1.2 Billion. It scared me so much that I never did it again.
I did it because I had been working on litigation cases, doing forensic reviews for the prior 2-3 years, hired by lenders who were suing appraiers to take an objective look at the reports to see how far off they might have been, or whether they were on the mark. I did dozens and dozens of retrospective reviews. Almost all showed the market conditions as stable, circal 1980-83, when in fact it had been declining in such a way that it be graphed.
Expecting to be deposed by the defense attorney’s or testify in the court cases; I never was and could not think of why not. It was years later that the answer came to me, insurance companies will settle cases as quickly as they can and as cheaply as they can. Attorney’s who contract with the insurance industry, do so under a committment to keep the litigation costs down. At that time the threshold was $10,000 in legal fees.
I am often tempted to add up the values of every property appraised, usually about this time of the year. But, I have never done it, though I know the numbers would be much lower, simply because most of my work involves litigation now, and each case is either settled or tried, so the contingent liabilities to not continue to run.
For those who do not know, suits against appraiser for professional liability usually come several years after the report was performed and often not by the original client. Certification 23 threw open the doors of Privity to the entire Stream of Commerce thrugh which the reports normally flow. Example, a report for a loan done for lending, might be sold to any number of entities, insured by a federal agency or private mortgage insurance.
The longest time period I have heard of has been 7-years after the appraisal report was performed. Gulp. The highest category through which professinal liability suits come is through the lender pipeline, which includes all those entities in the normal Stream of Commerce.
Thanks for brining back memories.
February 17, 2019 @ 9:40 am
Great post as always. As analysts we do have skills and knowledge that will translate to the future real estate world. If not valuation then as consultants. The key is definitely to be prepared.