Can we think about critical thinking? What does it have to do with appraisal? The word is used many times in USPAP (Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice) and The Appraisal of Real Estate. However, it’s only used once each in the context of thinking. In USPAP, it’s in Advisory Opinion on Scope of work, […]
What is common sense? How well does it work? Who has common sense? Who doesn’t? This should be easy. Common sense is common. And it must make sense. It means every one should have it. Sense means perception: sight, hearing, touch. Sense can also mean a feeling about something; a realistic attitude about things; or, […]
At times, it is good to ‘take stock’ of what really matters. We make new resolutions to do better. Such resolutions often fail because we avoid looking at the underlying issues. We can assume the new path should simply be a stronger more forceful repeat of the old. Or, we can be skeptic, not assume […]
Resolve to succeed at resolutions. There is a way. Some people seem to easily go about improving their income, their life, their close relationships, and sense of contributing to the world. How do they do this? Here is what seems to work for me. First and most important – Decide: Is this just another New […]
What does it mean “appraisal modernization?” [This is Part I of a series which continues for the next two years, on a monthly basis. We will consider not only the ideal future, but the path to get there – for both users and providers]. This is silly. We just make appraisal more modern! Hmmm. So, […]
Graphs and plots are good! I have used graphs in my appraisal reports for many years. There are a number of advantages: One visual is worth many words. Properly done, they demonstrate competence. They are easy to create in open-source and for-money software. Analysis speed is improved. They focus on what is important to clients. […]
Statistics can seem difficult and esoteric. Data Science is new. Each can be scary. We see traditional statistics as required material for the appraiser license. Basic inferential statistics have also been curriculum touted as “advanced” analytics for appraisers. Multiple regression, often thought of as a statistical method, is really a mathematical algorithm, which depends on […]
Can We Avoid Past Mistakes? Avoiding past mistakes might be important to appraisal modernization. [Part 2 of a multi-part series on Appraisal Modernization.] As we suggested in other publications (The Asset Analyst Report) there is a process to deal with change. The first step is to identify the problem, (or failed solution, such as the […]
A cobra farm raises and sells cobras to the government, whose objective is to control cobras in the wild. OK, lets try this again . . . Jeremy Bagott, MAI, AI-GRS was our guest speaker at the 2nd annual meeting of the Community of Asset Analysts – in Oakland on October 28, 2020. Jeremy just […]
[This is Part 3 of a series on Appraisal Modernization] “Appraisal modernization” is a crisp way to describe needed change. But what is really needed? To consider this question, in part 3, we must look at underlying motive. If we only look at the surface solution stuff, like “hybrid appraisals” we may be distracted from […]
The 1004MC form failed on every important principle of modern science of data analysis. Can we avoid yet another complex, ambiguous monster? What are the simple principles? Data science is new. It replaces much of the old “take a sample” statistics. And we learned this “inferential sample statistics” from professors who learned it in the […]
I have been accused of using new big words, when old little ones would do! Yes. Guilty. Why? What is the context? What are the goals? What is the path to the goals? The context is that most readers of these blogs are appraisers or collateral/risk people. The context is also that all related financial […]
It’s not me, I’m not biased! Is it me, the model, or the data? A great problem with legacy appraisal is that bias is about personal bias, rather than analytical bias. USPAP (Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice) only addresses human bias. Similarly, The Appraisal of Real Estate by the Appraisal Institute only addresses analytical […]
Appraisers study some economics. Data training is “pick comps carefully.” AVMs use data. AVMs (Automated Valuation Models) usually use a lot more data, even dozens or hundreds or …. Appraisers usually pick six or seven comps, based on good judgment and training and experience. We are told comparables should be similar and competitive, so they […]
Hairy scary hybrid parry. Let’s look deeper, now that we seem to be away from the original hype. When this thing first came up from the GSEs (FannieMae and FreddieMac), a hybrid appraisal was narrowly defined. Basically, it separated the desk job from the field job. I was even in a room once where the […]