I’m an appraiser, just like you. This blog is dedicated to asking big questions, inviting opinions, exploring new ways of doing things. I’m daring you and me to step out of our collective comfort zones and think in new ways about our profession. I’m hoping that the dialog that we develop will lead to positive […]
Daddy, how do You pick comps? We asked about comp selection in today’s “big data” world. We considered why we used three comps on a form, or put six comps on an accountant’s spreadsheet. But what are the different ways appraisers use to pick comps? We can use “good judgment” to pick comps. Or we […]
Actually, they are not new. The economics are not new. The designated three alternatives — cost, income and comparison — approaches remain valid. What is new are today’s technologies. The ones important to us are: 1) the extensive and complete data bases of market data, 2) computation power and algorithms, 3) interactive brain-machine interface. The new […]
It’s not. Not for the Average Appraiser Bear. In elementary school and high school level, what is taught are “the two types of statistics.” One is descriptive statistics, the other is inferential statistics. Descriptive statistics are used to describe, to summarize, or characterize a data set, so the human mind can understand rows of numbers. […]
Think up an adjustment amount, and then support that amount. Interesting, the ‘support’ language we use for our work. Form an opinion, and then support it. Isn’t that backwards? Shouldn’t it be “calculate an estimate”, and then form an opinion? Develop an opinion. A dictionary defines develop: “elaborate or expand in detail,” as in “to […]
Big data is in the news. Why is big data a big deal? What does big data mean to appraisers? And what of those who care about collateral risk, litigation damages, investment risk and portfolio risk. Perhaps we are progressing out of the age of information to the “age of connection.” Yes, we are connected […]
Statistics are infernal for a few basic reasons. Misuse of words. Using different meanings at different times. (Like ‘infer’); Assume a clever tool will give you a clever answer (like regression); The fallacy that inferential statistics works without random sampling; The worst fallacy that regression is always based on an inferential sampling process. Let’s look […]
Because the Appraisal profession is in trouble. I have heard these words from many people. From inside the AI, and from those outside. From members of the ASA, and other national organizations and from the many growing local organizations (mostly residentially oriented). Yet there is a need, a real need — for appraiser competence — […]
Support and prove your adjustments! Never mind that it’s not possible. Just do it! Do that, or face the wrath of being declared in “violation” of USPAP. So what, exactly, does USPAP say about adjustments for real estate appraisal? Well? Go look it up. You have a copy. Did you find what I found? Yep, […]
I’m reading a book named “Start with Why,” by Simon Sinek. Start with Why makes the point that people who rally behind something are more motivated by a common cause, than by a common solution. Our cause is motivated by hearing, seeing, and reading about fellow appraisers’ concerns. There is anger and frustration and disappointment. […]
When I first decided appraisal might be a great career, a couple of things felt good. First, appraisers were respected, even admired. Respected for their special knowledge and professional impartiality. Second, there appeared to be a real need for impartial service. Service which wasn’t provided anywhere else. There was no licensing. It was based on […]
Does it matter, or can I just do better at the old way of doing things? Big Data is a broad term, used and misused to describe a lot of things. One thing it clearly includes is the fact that we are being overwhelmed with a lot of data. A lot of that data is […]
Why is it so easy? Why is it so hard? [Author’s Note: At last year’s joint AI and AI Canada conference in June, 2017, in Ottawa. my talk was titled, Common Regression Errors and Mistakes.] Regression is nothing but a mathematical formula. How can it be wrong? Not all that complicated actually – find the slope […]
We are taught that a comp should be similar, then we make adjustment. Easy. There are three types of adjustment results. Some are exact, others are approximate, and others are biased but can help us get near the right adjustment number. It is important to understand the basic differences in these three different outcomes. We […]
An email subscriber’s question: Sent by Alfred O. How do we make the appraisal profession great again? We know WHY we do this. Appraisal means something to us. We have something to give. We’re here because we care about this profession and believe it’s the best answer to what our society needs. Appraisers have the […]