What are the elephants in the room? The elephants are our beliefs. These are the beliefs we all assume to be true. Let’s look at the first of our herd of elephants: number 1 – judgment. We often hear it said that no machine can replace human judgment. Or that appraisal will always require someone […]
“General” appraisers may not care about the 1004MC (market conditions addendum), or its replacement. But they should care about what happens next! The 1004MC was created by Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac in response to the economic meltdown around 2009. Appraisers were blamed. Everyone else tried to avoid looking culpable. Especially those who had profited greatly. Our […]
Can science be unscientific? Why do we care? In USPAP (Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice), the word science is not used. Not once! The word scientific is used only in Advisory Opinion 9, where it refers to “scientific aspects” of environmental contamination. In The Appraisal of Real Estate, 14th ed. the word is used […]
Can we compare “statistical adjustment” methods to traditional appraisal adjustment practices? ‘Adjustment’ is mentioned only once in USPAP; (Standard 5 on mass appraisal). However, in The Appraisal of Real Estate, “adjust” comes up 687 times! It must be important. Surely, it’s clearly explained. In each use, the context is critical. It states: ‘Adjustment’ builds on […]
Our guest poster this week is on technology, written by my long time friend and colleague, Steven R. Smith, MSREA, MAI, SRA. Steve has an MS in Real Estate Appraisal, BS in Real Estate Finance, MAI and SRA designations. Appraising since 1976, with prior experience in lending and sales. His Master’s thesis was on Real […]
At times, it is good to ‘take stock’ of what really matters. We make new resolutions to do better. Such resolutions often fail because we avoid looking at the underlying issues. We can assume the new path should simply be a stronger more forceful repeat of the old. Or, we can be skeptic, not assume […]
What does it mean “appraisal modernization?” [This is Part I of a series which continues for the next two years, on a monthly basis. We will consider not only the ideal future, but the path to get there – for both users and providers]. This is silly. We just make appraisal more modern! Hmmm. So, […]
The legacy vs the upstart? What is the one single big difference? The traditional appraisal process is accepted. The Data Science viewpoint is new. (John Tukey predicted the impact of computer power on data analysis as an empirical science – in 1962.) Traditional appraisal has a proven legacy: It focuses on property analysis – leading […]
Editor’s Note: Why Did I Attend the RStudio Conf 2020? is a new Guest Post written by Bruce Hahn, SRA, MAI, CRE. We’re excited to hear about his recent experience at the RStudio Conf 2020. He is exploring and expanding his skills using R and RStudio to create his appraisal reports. He created his website, […]
A cobra farm raises and sells cobras to the government, whose objective is to control cobras in the wild. OK, lets try this again . . . Jeremy Bagott, MAI, AI-GRS was our guest speaker at the 2nd annual meeting of the Community of Asset Analysts – in Oakland on October 28, 2020. Jeremy just […]
Most of us grew up being taught pie chart statistics. In elementary school that’s how you probably learned about data and graphing. Proportions were taught by using a pie chart. This seemed relevant because it dealt with the practical problem of slicing a pie so five kids could share. Much else often is taught not […]
Inference is defined as a conclusion reached on the basis of evidence and reasoning. I have often said the biggest problem with statistics is words. (The very word statistics is used in more than one meaning – often in a misleading way.)[1] So what is logical inference, and how is it different from statistical inference? […]
The 1004MC form failed on every important principle of modern science of data analysis. Can we avoid yet another complex, ambiguous monster? What are the simple principles? Data science is new. It replaces much of the old “take a sample” statistics. And we learned this “inferential sample statistics” from professors who learned it in the […]
Judgment to analysis to science to econometrics? When will this foolishness stop? I liked appraisal the way it used to be. It was slower, but more fun: Pick six or seven comps, go look, take pictures Pick three or four ‘good’ ones. Explain, justify, and support your opinions Then data got easier – on line. […]
“I know a good comp when I see it! I have good judgment. I know my market. And I’ve been doing this for a long time.” (Oh yeah – I’m also pretty smart.) What do we learn to get an appraiser license? We are told that a comparable is competitive to the subject. Then, a […]