“A new valuation modeling paradigm” are the words used by the late Dr. Marv Wolverton. He is the author of the Appraisal Institute’s book on statistics for appraisers. He created the term in a response to my peer-reviewed Appraisal Journal article: “Common Statistical Errors and Mistakes: Valuation and Reliability.” The article itself can be summed […]
Appraiser education is about a proven and “well-established” process! Developed nearly 100 years ago! The idea is to balance demand on supply, then explain where the subject fits. 1930s: Find some comps, compare, conclude. 2000s: Pick some comps, adjust to fit, conclude. Yesterday: Pick good comps, adjust, adjust, conclude. The embedded old ways obstruct modern […]
Transaction costs are added to every property transaction. Is this add-on a fair addition to the fundamental, intrinsic value a buyer gets? Is it part of the value of the home? Or is it something else? Is this a public policy issue? Is it an appraisal issue? And, is it yet one more question about […]
Accuracy measures how close is a value to the true/actual value. Who cares? Accuracy is a professed desire of most users of valuation services. However, today’s conflicted regulations, legacy practices, and obsolete standards — do not have accuracy as a goal! The overarching goal of appraisal today is not “be accurate” — it is “be […]
“I never make adjustments,” said the MAI who first trained me. He was a top litigation appraiser. He explained that if he made an adjustment he had no way to explain how he got the number when cross-examined by the opposing attorney. Instead, he used what is called ‘qualitative analysis.’ The Appraisal of Real Estate […]
The word “modernization” has a meaning different from what I thought. It seems to depend on who is using the word. To me, it just meant “get with it!” To our GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), it means something special. The dictionary definitions and explanations focus on the social and even political aspects of […]
“Market” – A word poorly understood, and often misused. A gathering or place for buying and selling things. It can be physical, or virtual, and involves at least one third party for competition. Perfect competition is when you have many buyers and sellers. A real property market is seldom or never perfect. A “market” for […]
MPI© (Market Price Indexing) is a holistic approach to market analysis and “time adjustments.” Here we look at the process, the theory, the judgment, and the benefits of this model. MPI – The process involves simple mechanics: Download the relevant competitive market data. Create a scatterplot with sale prices over time. Clean the data of […]
Appraiser judgment is required. Analysis is reduction and logic. Analysis comprises reasoning and reducing the problem into well-mannered parts. Logic can be mathematical/absolute, or it may involve uncertainty/probabilistic reality. Reduction is the act of separating a larger problem into manageable parts. Judgment, in (traditional-legacy) appraisal, is emphasized in picking comps (data selection). Appraisers are admonished […]
Time adjustments are not required. Unless they are needed . . . Appraisal time adjustments are also labeled as “market conditions” adjustments. Or, more recently in Evidence Based Valuation, “Market Price Indexing (MPI)©”. The FHFA blog post of 1/16/2024 defines “underappraisals” as those loan appraisals which come in below the contract price. The rising market […]
“USPAP” is for credible appraisers. The underlying principle of the actual ‘standards’ and the hundreds of pages of “explanatory” material is that the appraiser’s work must be “worthy of belief.” Accuracy and precision (trueness and sureness) are never stated as a goal. Believability, in turn, is judged by the user “expectations” and if “peers” would […]
Is thinking necessary? Are there different types of thinking? Can I avoid thinking about this? As the appraisal profession transitions to data analysis methods – we discover that judgment becomes more important – not less important. In fact, it does require we think about thinking! Let’s go! We can contrast a critical thought process with […]
An appraisal, everyone knows what is. Or do they? To explore this question, we must consider the theoretical – what USPAP expects. And we must consider what actually happens – in real, practical, practical, practice. In addition, we must consider other “valuations” types. We also might glance at what might be an ideal – given […]
Resolved: I am going to do better this year. Done! Each new year, most of us give some thought to how the next year might be better or different from last year. We set some intentions. We call these “Resolutions.” Or not. What’s wrong with this pledge to self? Lets look. You have to ask […]
The education question — what is more important? The content of appraiser training, or how it is delivered? Appraiser education “marketability” is similar to appraisal marketing itself. Buyers of appraisals and buyers of appraisal education judge by three things: Cheap; Fast; Good. “Pick any two” says David Towne in his graphic. Anyone can provide classes. […]
