Probably the most probable definition (of value) in use in the U.S., is used for “federally related transactions.” The underlying assumptions assume “normal” or “typical” conditions. The “most probable price.” “Most probable” presumes you can attach certain levels of possibility to different values – then just pick the one value which is the “highest” probability. […]
The Stats, Graphs, and Data Science classes are appraisal science. Why should an appraiser care about appraisal science? Is there an art part? Or is it a hybrid? The appraiser’s future is appraisal science, and sharpened judgment with AI assistance. Appraisal science: Appraisal is an opinion of value, or commonly, “the report.” Science is a […]
Technology in appraisal is the new exposure draft — Advisory Opinion (AO41) written by the Appraisal Foundation (Appraisal Standards Board). It does not define what technology is. More importantly, it seems to treat process technologies and product technologies without distinction. Appraisers mostly buy products (like measuring devices), and mostly sell data process technologies (like analytics, […]
So how credible is your appraisal? [or Death of a Profession] We need to look at this “how credible?” thing. Maybe a “Believability Score”! USPAP says credible is “worthy of belief.” Ah ha! Explained. We just need to measure “how worthy” is your opinion. A worthiness measure! Just what our appraisal user/clients need. So that […]
Why Resolve anything? I resolve because I want to get something, to change something. Even myself self. Darn. But still – I do want something to be different. So what is my scope of work? That helps! Identify the doable goal, and an approach. Select a path that works, and can succeed. Identify the proven, […]
What is spirit? What is your spirit? Do you care? Spirit is both a psych term and a mystical term. In psychology, “spirit” is about “the non-physical core of a person—the vital force, moral character, a transcendent essence beyond the body, connected to meaning, purpose, and wholeness. Spiritual principles are useful, practical, and profitable. A strategy. What are […]
Why is Data Science important for your future? The Big Four Part 3 — DS? (Read the earlier blogs here.) Easy. AI is on the way. It’s gonna be OK. UAD 3.6 is here and forces more detail in development and analysis. Appraiser judgment requires a deeper logic with more detail. Algorithms can be automated, […]
AV (Automated Valuation) is the second of our four topics in the discussion on The Big Four: AI, AV, DS, and BS. (Read the earlier blogs here.) Why these four topics? Because they cover the whole of the mechanical part of appraisal. It is my position that when good mechanics are in place, issues of […]
AI: Panacea or Pall? AI is the first of our four topics: AI, AV, DS, and BS. (See part zero for a review.) The capability of AI continues to increase. It seems the capability is defined not by the machine itself. Rather, it is defined (so far) by the human ability to harness the smart […]
Cyndi reminded me that gratitude is usually the topic for this week of the year. Again? First, I am grateful to Cyndi for doing the hard work of publishing the weekly blog, for the visuals – sometimes poignant, sometimes funny — as well as being a co-editor with chief editor and comma/period expert — Luanne. […]
While AI is a sweeping topic, we need to look back. Look back at the fundamentals of appraisal theory and what makes a good valuation different from a bad valuation. In exploring this “goodness,” we must consider all the topics and concepts that have entered the world of appraisal – Automated Valuation, Data Science, and […]
Modernize What ?!!! This is the last of this “modernize” series! Out with the old! In with the new! Modernize! The GSEs (Government Sponsored Enterprises – FannieMae and FreddieMac) adopted the “modernize” word. This in relation to their new data requirement electronic form. Which is now called generically the “UAD” (“Uniform Appraisal Dataset”) which is […]
Artificial intelligence (“Ai”) does things which mimic human intelligence. This includes learning, problem-solving, reasoning, and making decisions. These Ai systems use huge (or restricted) data to find patterns and make predictions. These are also the construct of data science. How does this relate to appraisal? This Modernizing Appraisal series is about the analysis process, not FannieMae and FreddieMac reporting requirements. The […]
Bank lending risk comprises borrower credit and liquidity, and those related to the interest rate, operational, business) issues, and market reversal. Market (trend) problems typically only become important when other risks trigger foreclosures. But trend declines can trigger the other four main risks. Market risk is now the highest it has been in many years. […]
This is silly – modernize value . . . Everybody knows what value is. Even if we have several different definitions of the word. It’s market price. Easy. No need to explore. Or is there? This Modernizing Appraisal series is about the analysis process, not FannieMae and FreddieMac reporting requirements. The process is identical: 1) The problem; 2) The data; 3) Predict or adjust; 4) Communicate. We continue […]
