No it’s not. Just do what you’re told. Do what you were taught. Follow the Rules. No thinking required. What are the “rules” of appraisal? Easy: Get your intended user’s expectations (scope of Work). Pick your comps. Apply one or more “approaches”. Provide your opinion (then explain, justify and support that opinion). How will you […]
Who cares if it’s reliable? It only needs to be “credible” – believable. Credible: “Worthy of Belief” Reliable: “Repeatability of findings” Credibility comprises both trustworthiness and expertise. It has both objective and subjective elements. One can also increase credibility by being a good salesperson by convincing the reader of your viewpoint. You form an opinion, then […]
Why do we have scope creep? Possible answers include: The reviewer or clerk has to justify their existence; There is genuine concern about something; The work should’ve been there in the first place; It’s important to remember that our entire system of appraisal production and review is belief-based. It must be “worthy of belief.” We […]
Appraisers have always worked with data. In the early days, we’d go to the county courthouse to examine the possible types available in the county recorder’s sales that might convert into useful “comps.” An experienced appraiser had a rough idea of what was being looked for, taking the first step in converting unsystematic data into […]
Yes. Appraisal as we know it is dying. Can it be saved? No. So what should I do? What should “we” do? To answer these questions, we need to look at causes and conditions. Some of these are obvious. Judgment is good; Analysis is better. Human generalization is excellent; Computation is fast. Good comps are […]
Tools for work, tools for life. This time of the year for many is a time of reflection and hope. My reflection today is how some principles of our profession may be principles of a successful life; what those principles may be, and how they’ve contributed to my joy and sense of satisfaction and service. Integrity […]
I saw an article from the Washington Post, December 15, 2017, saying the administrative/enforcement branch of the U.S. government is banning the use of certain words or phrases. Two of the phrases include “science-based” and “evidence-based”. As many of you know, I am an active advocate of Evidence Based Valuation.© If valuation based on evidence […]
Which comes first? The model tells us how. The tool tells us what. The more important may be the why. Why use a model? Why use a tool? Last Friday, December 8, we gave the first ever class on R for Appraisers. R is the tool. R is too cool. It’s clearly the toolbox of […]
What went wrong? How did a vibrant profession of experts in property value begin to disappear? Who’s at fault? Is it the appraisers? The Standards? The “appraisal process”? The regulators? Or could it be even the users and clients? Inertia does not come easy. Change is even more difficult. Inertia requires defending the old way […]
Doggerel is defined as “a comic verse of irregular measure.” It seems we have three possible types of collateral assurance: Appraiser judgment AVM proprietary algorithm Evidence based data science The first relies on subjective appraiser judgment of “comps.” The second relies on secret proprietary algorithms. The third combines the most robust and most useful information […]
There is a lot of talk about the wave of technology changing appraisal. What can you do? How can you be ahead of the wave? Is there hope? A wave of new technology means new tools: statistics, deep learning, big data, computation, data science, and brain-machine interface. But they need people. People qualified to use […]
How can this be? Only One? USPAP says there are three approaches. Licensing classes are organized around three approaches. There used to be “eight methods,” (Frederick Babcock, 1924), then seven (1932), then three (1960). Is it time for ONE approach? Perhaps the most important lesson today, to learn from the Babcock history, was his belief. […]
For the Stats, Graphs, and Data Science1 class, we are often asked if the material is oriented to residential or commercial property. The question itself assumes that the property type defines the logic of analysis. Data science is the science of data. The class itself is about methodology, technology, and cognitology. Whew! The question about […]
Damn, isn’t just plain thinking enough? Now he sez I gotta start thinking about thinking too?! Ted Whitmer was teaching his AI “Third Party Provider” class in Houston last week, the day before the Stats, Graphs, and Data Science1 class, for the AI Chapter’s annual 28 hour recertification week. I was privileged to drop in […]
In an earlier post we noted that the ideal comparable data set is the complete CMS, the Competitive Market Segment(c) , not just three comps. Some readers disagreed, believing that three comps is enough. A primary reason for the use of all sales which competed directly with the subject property is that it improves the […]
