Yes. Appraisal as we know it is dying. Can it be saved? No. So what should I do? What should “we” do? To answer these questions, we need to look at causes and conditions. Some of these are obvious. Judgment is good; Analysis is better. Human generalization is excellent; Computation is fast. Good comps are […]
Tools for work, tools for life. This time of the year for many is a time of reflection and hope. My reflection today is how some principles of our profession may be principles of a successful life; what those principles may be, and how they’ve contributed to my joy and sense of satisfaction and service. Integrity […]
I saw an article from the Washington Post, December 15, 2017, saying the administrative/enforcement branch of the U.S. government is banning the use of certain words or phrases. Two of the phrases include “science-based” and “evidence-based”. As many of you know, I am an active advocate of Evidence Based Valuation.© If valuation based on evidence […]
Which comes first? The model tells us how. The tool tells us what. The more important may be the why. Why use a model? Why use a tool? Last Friday, December 8, we gave the first ever class on R for Appraisers. R is the tool. R is too cool. It’s clearly the toolbox of […]
What went wrong? How did a vibrant profession of experts in property value begin to disappear? Who’s at fault? Is it the appraisers? The Standards? The “appraisal process”? The regulators? Or could it be even the users and clients? Inertia does not come easy. Change is even more difficult. Inertia requires defending the old way […]
Doggerel is defined as “a comic verse of irregular measure.” It seems we have three possible types of collateral assurance: Appraiser judgment AVM proprietary algorithm Evidence based data science The first relies on subjective appraiser judgment of “comps.” The second relies on secret proprietary algorithms. The third combines the most robust and most useful information […]
There is a lot of talk about the wave of technology changing appraisal. What can you do? How can you be ahead of the wave? Is there hope? A wave of new technology means new tools: statistics, deep learning, big data, computation, data science, and brain-machine interface. But they need people. People qualified to use […]
How can this be? Only One? USPAP says there are three approaches. Licensing classes are organized around three approaches. There used to be “eight methods,” (Frederick Babcock, 1924), then seven (1932), then three (1960). Is it time for ONE approach? Perhaps the most important lesson today, to learn from the Babcock history, was his belief. […]
For the Stats, Graphs, and Data Science1 class, we are often asked if the material is oriented to residential or commercial property. The question itself assumes that the property type defines the logic of analysis. Data science is the science of data. The class itself is about methodology, technology, and cognitology. Whew! The question about […]
Damn, isn’t just plain thinking enough? Now he sez I gotta start thinking about thinking too?! Ted Whitmer was teaching his AI “Third Party Provider” class in Houston last week, the day before the Stats, Graphs, and Data Science1 class, for the AI Chapter’s annual 28 hour recertification week. I was privileged to drop in […]
In an earlier post we noted that the ideal comparable data set is the complete CMS, the Competitive Market Segment(c) , not just three comps. Some readers disagreed, believing that three comps is enough. A primary reason for the use of all sales which competed directly with the subject property is that it improves the […]
Every profession I know that deals with numbers also provides some estimate of the reliability of the result. An engineer would not say “the most probable life of this bridge is 87 years.” The engineer might provide a minimum, or a range, or some indication of how reliable the estimated life is. My new journal […]
{Author’s note: Thank you to the Houston Chapter of the Appraisal Institute for the opportunity to present this timely topic. Recovery after a major catastrophe is a marathon, not a sprint. We have been affected hurricanes, floods, and now, wild fires up and down the California coast. Appraisers can help. Please consider offering your time […]
The appraisal profession is hamstrung. Who did this to us? Looking for cause? When things feel and act difficult, it is only human to look at cause. It is them who create problems. If only they would see things our way. If we took a poll, who is it that is causing us the biggest […]
Most of us grew up learning two types of statistics — descriptive and inferential. Descriptive statistics provide summaries of any group, like the mean, the median, the range, the variance. It only got hard when we had to square a bunch of numbers, add them up, and then get out a slide rule (prior to […]
