Because the Appraisal profession is in trouble. I have heard these words from many people. From inside the AI, and from those outside. From members of the ASA, and other national organizations and from the many growing local organizations (mostly residentially oriented). Yet there is a need, a real need — for appraiser competence — […]
Statistics are infernal for a few basic reasons. Misuse of words. Using different meanings at different times. (Like ‘infer’); Assume a clever tool will give you a clever answer (like regression); The fallacy that inferential statistics works without random sampling; The worst fallacy that regression is always based on an inferential sampling process. Let’s look […]
Big data is in the news. Why is big data a big deal? What does big data mean to appraisers? And what of those who care about collateral risk, litigation damages, investment risk and portfolio risk. Perhaps we are progressing out of the age of information to the “age of connection.” Yes, we are connected […]
Think up an adjustment amount, and then support that amount. Interesting, the ‘support’ language we use for our work. Form an opinion, and then support it. Isn’t that backwards? Shouldn’t it be “calculate an estimate”, and then form an opinion? Develop an opinion. A dictionary defines develop: “elaborate or expand in detail,” as in “to […]
It’s not. Not for the Average Appraiser Bear. In elementary school and high school level, what is taught are “the two types of statistics.” One is descriptive statistics, the other is inferential statistics. Descriptive statistics are used to describe, to summarize, or characterize a data set, so the human mind can understand rows of numbers. […]
Actually, they are not new. The economics are not new. The designated three alternatives — cost, income and comparison — approaches remain valid. What is new are today’s technologies. The ones important to us are: 1) the extensive and complete data bases of market data, 2) computation power and algorithms, 3) interactive brain-machine interface. The new […]
Daddy, how do You pick comps? We asked about comp selection in today’s “big data” world. We considered why we used three comps on a form, or put six comps on an accountant’s spreadsheet. But what are the different ways appraisers use to pick comps? We can use “good judgment” to pick comps. Or we […]
We asked about comp selection in a “big data” world. Why do we still use three comps on a form, or six comps on a spreadsheet? What is the right data? It has been claimed that three comparables was used because they fit on an 8 ½” by 11” sheet of paper. For commercial work, […]
Comparable selection is fundamental. In the traditional “valuation process,” first the “relevant characteristics of the property” are identified. Then in the “data collection” step, “Comparable Property Data” is collected. The subject is depicted by relevant characteristics (predictor variables), and comparables are chosen to fit that depiction. In the traditional procedure, these are called “elements of […]
Regression is just a math formula. Regression is not magic. The answer is only as good as the data used. Regression is a tool. It is helpful to understand the difference between a tool and a model. To build a house, you need a hammer, the tool. You also need a nailing schedule, which tells you […]
Evidence Based Valuation Practice: Toward Real Price Indexing As a first, fully-explained example of the EBV approach, I want to look at one of the earliest but more important applications of our new way of thinking – price indexing. We can simplify things by looking at what we were taught, in order to discard some […]
Why this is Called the ‘Analogue Blog’ and Why You Should Join in. Well, for one thing it rhymes and helps create curiosity. And the words mean something. “Blog” is part of the purpose of this web presence and community. “Analogue” describes well the core spirit of the community we are connecting. A blog is […]
What is the Mission of the Analogue Blog and Why You, as an Appraiser, Should Care. A blog shares “thoughts, opinions, and experiences.” The intent of this blog is to provide a starting point for thoughts, opinions, and experiences – perhaps a starting point for a community of activists. There are a growing number of […]
I’m an appraiser, just like you. This blog is dedicated to asking big questions, inviting opinions, exploring new ways of doing things. I’m daring you and me to step out of our collective comfort zones and think in new ways about our profession. I’m hoping that the dialog that we develop will lead to positive […]
