The 1004MC form failed on every important principle of modern science of data analysis. Can we avoid yet another complex, ambiguous monster? What are the simple principles? Data science is new. It replaces much of the old “take a sample” statistics. And we learned this “inferential sample statistics” from professors who learned it in the […]
KISS — Keep it Simpler Science! What?! How can that be?! Einstein said “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” The beauty of science is that it strives to make difficult things understandable. Traditional appraisal uses four or five comparable sales. The human brain can compare and understand up to six […]
Inference is defined as a conclusion reached on the basis of evidence and reasoning. I have often said the biggest problem with statistics is words. (The very word statistics is used in more than one meaning – often in a misleading way.)[1] So what is logical inference, and how is it different from statistical inference? […]
Most of us grew up being taught pie chart statistics. In elementary school that’s how you probably learned about data and graphing. Proportions were taught by using a pie chart. This seemed relevant because it dealt with the practical problem of slicing a pie so five kids could share. Much else often is taught not […]
Do you follow ethical rules, or moral principles? How does human psychology play in? It is proven that appraisers’ opinions mostly match sale price (for loans). Justifications are: The price simply reflects an efficient market. The price lands inside Richard Ratcliffe’s “transaction zone”. (The principle here is that a real “most probable” value does not […]
[This is Part 3 of a series on Appraisal Modernization] “Appraisal modernization” is a crisp way to describe needed change. But what is really needed? To consider this question, in part 3, we must look at underlying motive. If we only look at the surface solution stuff, like “hybrid appraisals” we may be distracted from […]
A cobra farm raises and sells cobras to the government, whose objective is to control cobras in the wild. OK, lets try this again . . . Jeremy Bagott, MAI, AI-GRS was our guest speaker at the 2nd annual meeting of the Community of Asset Analysts – in Oakland on October 28, 2020. Jeremy just […]
We hear the word “technology” thrown around a lot. It’s a scare word. It gets attention. But what is it, and how does it affect our risk information industry? Technology can be defined as all the techniques, skills, methods, and processes used to produce a good or service or accomplish an objective, such as scientific […]
The legacy vs the upstart? What is the one single big difference? The traditional appraisal process is accepted. The Data Science viewpoint is new. (John Tukey predicted the impact of computer power on data analysis as an empirical science – in 1962.) Traditional appraisal has a proven legacy: It focuses on property analysis – leading […]
And what does cosmic cobra breeding have to do with valuation? (Part 1) Jeremy Bagott just sent me his new book.* It is about the joys of changing appraisal standards every couple of years. It’s about raising (then lowering) requirements for appraisers. And more. I’ve started to read the “Cobra”. Jeremy is an excellent writer, […]
Can We Avoid Past Mistakes? Avoiding past mistakes might be important to appraisal modernization. [Part 2 of a multi-part series on Appraisal Modernization.] As we suggested in other publications (The Asset Analyst Report) there is a process to deal with change. The first step is to identify the problem, (or failed solution, such as the […]
Statistics can seem difficult and esoteric. Data Science is new. Each can be scary. We see traditional statistics as required material for the appraiser license. Basic inferential statistics have also been curriculum touted as “advanced” analytics for appraisers. Multiple regression, often thought of as a statistical method, is really a mathematical algorithm, which depends on […]
Graphs and plots are good! I have used graphs in my appraisal reports for many years. There are a number of advantages: One visual is worth many words. Properly done, they demonstrate competence. They are easy to create in open-source and for-money software. Analysis speed is improved. They focus on what is important to clients. […]
What does it mean “appraisal modernization?” [This is Part I of a series which continues for the next two years, on a monthly basis. We will consider not only the ideal future, but the path to get there – for both users and providers]. This is silly. We just make appraisal more modern! Hmmm. So, […]
Resolve to succeed at resolutions. There is a way. Some people seem to easily go about improving their income, their life, their close relationships, and sense of contributing to the world. How do they do this? Here is what seems to work for me. First and most important – Decide: Is this just another New […]
