Technology in appraisal is the new exposure draft — Advisory Opinion (AO41) written by the Appraisal Foundation (Appraisal Standards Board).

It does not define what technology is.

More importantly, it seems to treat process technologies and product technologies without distinction.  Appraisers mostly buy products (like measuring devices), and mostly sell data process technologies (like analytics, visuals, and ‘supported’ opinions).

The first exposure draft specifically mentions two algorithms (regression software and machine learning) and the AVM industry (Automated Valuation Models).  And a specific type of Artificial Intelligence, called “Generative AI.”  These deserve definition, given that they are specifically identified “technologies.”

Regression mathematically locates a line, or ‘smoother’, that fits the data.  It has several appraisal uses, where the cause/effect relationship is known.

Machine learning uses different algorithms to find patterns in large datasets.  It is marginally useful for individual appraisal work, due to generally limited, directly competitive (comparable) data.

AVMs (Automated Valuation Models) are neither a model nor an algorithm.  It is an industry that provides value estimates.  AVM companies keep proprietary algorithms secret.  Property features and scope of work/analysis are decided by the client/lender, based on their policies.  Most importantly, AVMs are not subject to the “core principles” of USPAP, as noted in the first paragraph of this Advisory Opinion draft.  (Generally as set out in the Preamble and Ethics Rule of USPAP.)

Generative AI uses statistical algorithms to find patterns in large or ‘vast’ datasets.  The results create new and original content of several types, including text, images, code, music, and video.

The motivation for this new/revised opinion AO-41 for appraisers is the advent and rapid growth of artificial intelligence.

What seems to stand out is not that this is a new way of forming an opinion, but a way to merge new tools and new analytics into old expectations and established patterns.  Old ways as imposed by underwriter/reviewer opinion, regulations, performance standards, and legacy education.

The USPAP Scope of Work Rule says little or nothing about the importance of the market analysis.  It focuses on subject features and characteristics.  It only mentions “economic supply and demand,” and “market area trends … if necessary.”  The entire modern market analysis process in two lines!

The emphases in this systematizing  (Scope of Work) part of USPAP is to comply with established ways –  what users expect, and what peers do.  This focus is in direct competition with the admonition of Standards Rule 1-1(a) which emphasizes the need for proficiency in new methods and techniques.

(New methods are never “established” methods!)

On the positive side, USPAP seems visionary, when Standards Rule 1-4 requires an appraiser to analyze all information and such comparable sales as available.  (Not just 4 or 5 hand-picked comps.)

This last thought is accentuated by the fact that the most influential appraiser educational organizations clearly state the appraiser must first pick comps, then do market analysis.  Backwards.  Backwards.

Judgment first, facts later.

It is my hope that, as others provide public comments for the Appraisal Standards Board exposure draft AO-41, this outline and definitions will help clarify the discussion.