When I first decided appraisal might be a great career, a couple of things felt good. First, appraisers were respected, even admired. Respected for their special knowledge and professional impartiality. Second, there appeared to be a real need for impartial service. Service which wasn’t provided anywhere else. There was no licensing. It was based on […]
Is it just change, a little change or a big change? What is the likely answer? There are two change possibilities: 1) You will be mostly replaced by a machine; 2) You will be running the machine in combination with your subject-matter knowledge. As humans, and as appraisers, we still have some natural advantages. But […]
Can I Reproduce? Please? Why won’t they teach me how to reproduce? We hear of a “reproducibility crisis.” What is it? Who cares? How does it affect me? And finally – Do we reproduce properly in the appraisal process? Depending on the author, the scientific method can be broken down into four parts, or five […]
“Progress Slow on Robot Takeover” Appraiser This is the headline from an article in the San Diego Union Tribune this morning. The article went on to say, “Data complexities, trust issues, and the persistent need for human input restrain scaled-up automation.” No Turbo Charged Appraiser Yet. As a brand-new appraiser trainee, I was in awe […]
Quiz: How many comps are “just right?” First we must ask: What is a comparable? We can take two attitudes: 1) “I know a good comp when I see it!” or; 2) What does our accepted literature say? The Appraisal of Real Estate says . . . “The data used for comparison … should come […]
The appraisal profession is hamstrung. Who did this to us? Looking for cause? When things feel and act difficult, it is only human to look at cause. It is them who create problems. If only they would see things our way. If we took a poll, who is it that is causing us the biggest […]
Damn, isn’t just plain thinking enough? Now he sez I gotta start thinking about thinking too?! Ted Whitmer was teaching his AI “Third Party Provider” class in Houston last week, the day before the Stats, Graphs, and Data Science1 class, for the AI Chapter’s annual 28 hour recertification week. I was privileged to drop in […]
I saw an article from the Washington Post, December 15, 2017, saying the administrative/enforcement branch of the U.S. government is banning the use of certain words or phrases. Two of the phrases include “science-based” and “evidence-based”. As many of you know, I am an active advocate of Evidence Based Valuation.© If valuation based on evidence […]
Yes. Appraisal as we know it is dying. Can it be saved? No. So what should I do? What should “we” do? To answer these questions, we need to look at causes and conditions. Some of these are obvious. Judgment is good; Analysis is better. Human generalization is excellent; Computation is fast. Good comps are […]
Why do we have scope creep? Possible answers include: The reviewer or clerk has to justify their existence; There is genuine concern about something; The work should’ve been there in the first place; It’s important to remember that our entire system of appraisal production and review is belief-based. It must be “worthy of belief.” We […]
This week’s post, “Faster! Faster! Have You Noticed?” is written by my good friend and data analyst, Bruce Hahn, SRA, ASA, CRE. Bruce is a past president of the Northern California Chapter of the Appraisal Institute. Find him at BruceHahn.com. The world is changing faster! Technology marches forward. Data is collected about anything and everything. […]
Major challenges exist within our appraiser education given the dramatic changes in technology. These challenges include appraisal standards, our basic and advanced education, and some claims by software providers. A quick overview: Subjective acceptability in standards; Inferential assumption in curriculum; Regression coefficients all over the place. Subjective acceptability. Many consider appraisal to still be […]
What does it mean “Can the profession be saved?” Does anyone else care except us? The second question first. Who might care? Clients who have developed a trust for you and who are comfortable with the traditional ways of doing things. There is a group of us and of them who like doing things as […]
Our education tells us a comp is similar and competitive. So how do we measure “comparability”? If our job entails studying market data to get an answer … might it be important to know exactly how to describe a comp? In researching the literature, including journal articles, I find little help. Only two or three […]
The last economic meltdown happened because something wasn’t working. Appraisers can take two attitudes: 1) They are just reporters of “expected selling prices”; 2) They are just following standards. Is it the lenders and underwriters who determine risk, or is it appraisers? So appraisers can say they only do as they are told. Is […]