Judgment versus science. Judgment wins! (Part I of “Data Collection”) I have heard such things as “No science formula will ever replace my experience and training.” And “no AVM (Automated Valuation Model) will ever inspect a house.” Judgment wins. Except for one problem. The market share of valuations continues down for appraisers. AVMs, ‘evaluations’, broker […]
AVMs (Automated Valuation Models) have been around for over 20 years now. Appraisals have been around for 100 years now. Why no winner? Let’s look. This is the first part in a series of coming blogs that will compare and contrast “automated” versus “opinion” valuations. Stay tuned to hear the unexpected surprise climax of this […]
No computer can replace my expert judgment and experience! We’ve heard words like this. And there is a contingent of “quants” who rely on a high level of competence in quantitative methods, which may include statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence. Each expert type has a hammer. And each is right in their own way. […]
Judgment vs. Data. Computer quants vs field experts. Each thinks they have a better hammer. Quants think the experts have their eyes closed. “Experts” think the quants are hammering screws. Both have sore thumbs. Better In part 2, we considered heuristic analysis which focuses on mental efficiency to help make judgments and decisions quick and […]
Bias, We Got it Handled? We got standards, we got smarts. And we have issues . . . This is the second of a series asking questions and seeking answers about bias in valuation. Part One is here. President Biden proposed to “establish a national standard for housing appraisals.” The purpose is to ensure adequate […]
For some people, Evidence Based Valuation (EBV)© feels like a threat to “proven” appraisal practices. Others may believe it is a pressing, needed radical change. It is neither. Modernized appraisal unifies the best of established theory and modern methods. It is that simple. Traditional appraisal practice was built on sound fundamentals of economic theory. These […]
A great deal of economic, social, and political talk has been around affordability of housing. To explore this topic, it may be helpful to ask some questions. Good policy starts with the right questions. In simplest terms, some people have the resources to have nice homes in nice neighborhoods, others have just tolerable homes for […]
Appraisers have adjustments for “market conditions” and “sale conditions.” Why not “loan conditions?” There are similarities and differences. This is Part II in this series. Read Part I here Loan Conditions. Market conditions, for any particular market, price levels – trend together. So, appraisers apply ‘time’ adjustments to compensate for this change in ‘market conditions.’ […]
Legacy appraisal practice “the valuation process” is well established. Therein lies the problem. It is not designed to use modern methods toward objective, unbiased results. First, lets distinguish the different kinds of bias. We need to separate personal bias from analytic bias. Personal bias can be intentional, or unintentional (unconscious). Analytic bias itself can come […]
Postpone appraisal modernization. We can do that later. Why? Change and improvement should, normally, come from a profession. When a profession fails to bring improvement, eventually consumers/clients press for change. That’s what seems to have happened. The two largest consumers of appraisals now have pressed for change. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have realized the […]
USPAP (Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice) ethics rule specifically states that “An appraiser must not perform an assignment with bias.” It defines Bias as “a preference or inclination that precludes an appraiser’s impartiality, independence, or objectivity in an assignment.” As we noted in a prior Analogue Blog, there are two types of bias: personal […]
Market value for home loans in the United States is precisely defined. The understanding of “market value” is the single most important concept defining what appraisers do. Buyer/seller are prudent, knowledgeable, well informed or advised, and ‘typically’ motivated; there is no ‘undue’ stimulus; and the sale is in cash terms, with normal exposure, and “unaffected […]
Is it “Obvious”, like some people have “common sense”? Or is it counter-intuitive? We compared price versus value in Part I. (There, the leading paragraph defines “market value” as per USPAP Advisory Opinion 22.) The Appraisal Foundation opinion goes on for a full page to explain the explanation of the definition, and the importance of […]
Misused terms: AI (Artificial Intelligence), ML (Machine Learning), makes you look smart. It makes for clever marketing. And it may be BS. The most important “algorithm” for valuers is A+B=C. Words are important. They help us understand each other and avoid wars. Marketers, in particular, tend to bandy about clever words, designed to impress you […]
Time adjustments is a timely topic. Recent ski-jump rises in prices have been ramp-ant in many places. Valuemetrics.info provided a free, two-hour webinar on the topic, and we had almost exactly 1000 appraisers sign up. (Although many did not show – free, you know.) Prior to the webinar, I asked some reviewers about how appraisers […]