A vary good question!

As I have often contended:  The problem with statistics is . . . words.

Appraisal has been accused of being a “cottage industry.”  Grrrr.  How can this be?  Here, too, part of the problem is words.  We have continued to use, enforce, and teach outmoded ways and words.  Ways and words which affect our thinking and even our logic.

Words are important.  They are symbols.  Words represent thoughts and objects and even feelings.

When we hear a ‘science-type’ word like variable, we balk and resist.  We prefer the old, cottage-comfy words – like ‘element of comparison.’  Automatic thinking takes place.  No reason to challenge what is in the basic license education, in ‘advanced’ designation education, or regulation enforced education as from the Standards Advisory Opinion.  Why rock the boat with ‘new,’ rigorous, more concise words?

This avoidance helps preserve the notion that appraisal is an art, to be practiced by an artist, not by an analyst.  The evidence-based method provides analytic results, measurably reliable results, not worthy opinions.  This is particularly true of such concepts (words) such as “most probable,” where the concept of probability – and even the word probability – is not taught, never defined, and never explained.

Perhaps this is a good thing.  Because given the exceptions to a perfect market, the “most probable selling price” does not exist!  It is a mathematical fallacy.

We are forced to use a clear-cut, mathematical, statistical, scientific word — probable — in an artsy, colloquial, incorrect way.  We are an easy target for accusations of bias!  (Whether or not it is true.) vary

The word ‘probable’ is in the very definition of what we are required do.  It is in the very definition of market value.  We are required to provide a worthy-of-belief, credible opinion of a number which does not exist!  (The result of a ‘non-zero-sum’ game.)

Variable.  The answer appraisers must provide is a variable which varies.  Ugh!  It has variance and deviation and variation and a probability density (allegedly) and uncertainty.  Ugh!

Let’s not look.  It hurts my head vary much.

Yet the use and misuse of outdated words continues to hold back the appraisal ‘profession.’  Such words and ways make us vulnerable to lack of rigor, accusations of bias, and the need for more regulation!

We have no defense when they point out that the “appraisal process” starts out with “picking comps,” and ends with an opinion.  (Oh yeah, and be sure to support that opinion.)

We have no defense when we are blamed for the correlation between minority neighborhoods and lower prices.  We do not have the words.  Simple, basic science concepts such as correlation does not prove causation!  No defense.

No defense when we cannot identify and use basic logic and data summaries. The science.

Science is:  Systematic study through observation and experiment, by an expert in the field.