Editor’s Note: Is the Definition of Market Value Outdated? is a Guest Post from Bruce Hahn, SRA, MAI, CRE, CCIM. 

Why has the current definition of market value been around without change for so long? Many decades in fact! Not much of it seems applicable to the realities of at least the last decade nor the rest of this decade. Consider the definition from page 4 of the current FNMA 1004 – the URAR form.

“The most probable price which a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller, each acting prudently, knowledgeably and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. Implicit in this definition is the consummation of a sale as of a specified date and the passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby:

  • buyer and seller are typically motivated;
  • both parties are well informed or well advised, and each acting in what he or she considers his or her own best interest;
  • a reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market;
  • payment is made in terms of cash in U. S. dollars or in terms of financial arrangements comparable thereto; and
  • the price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions* granted by anyone associated with the sale.”

There are problems with just about every element of this definition because they have not described the market conditions for the last decade plus in America. Item 4 stands out in particular. Why don’t appraisals consider the impact of financing on market value? Payment in terms of cash in US dollars or financial arrangements comparable thereto…..

At the end of the first week of January 2021 the 30 year mortgage rate averaged 2.65% in the United States. As of the beginning of November 2022 the 30 year rate was around 7.12% – a nearly 450 basis point increase in the cost of borrowing due to a 168% increase in mortgage rates. Furthermore, inflation as of the beginning of 2021 was running at 1.4% as of January 2021. It quickly climbed to 5% in May 2021 and as of August 2022 it was at 8.3% and steady at 8.2% in September 2022. So the current 30 year mortgage rate is actually remains negative in real terms at -1.2% (mortgage rate – inflation rate or 8.3% – 7.1%)! How is a negative real mortgage rate equivalent to cash? It isn’t! The negative real rate reflects that you will not have to repay all of the mortgage principal back – due to the debasement of the value of the dollar thanks to the inflation rate. This does NOT equal cash!

Loan Change over Thirty years

Forget the other problems with the definition of market value! It is very clear that financing terms have not been equal to cash recently. The first line after the definition of value on page 4 of the URAR has the following comment: “*Adjustments to the comparables must be made for special or creative financing or sales concessions.” Isn’t a mortgage interest rate that is  negative in real terms special financing? Lenders may choose not to underwrite to true market value definition standards but shouldn’t appraisers analyze the true impact of the cost of debt service relative to cash on market value of these factors? Real estate values would be very different without the highly stimulative impacts of negative interest rates (in real terms) if buyers truly paid all cash!

Isn’t the first discussion a potential buyer has with a realtor about the PITI (principal, interest, real estate taxes and insurance) they can afford? This discussion gets translated to how much home they can afford in terms of total purchase price. A two thirds increase in the cost of debt service will certainly impact the maximum purchase price that a potential buyer can pay. Given that virtually no one is seeing a 66% raise in income, the only part of that equation that can change is price. Yes those negative real interest rates in the last couple years did not create a true market value!

More ominously, there is a major change now evident. Consider the following trend chart for the 30 year mortgage rate – the data is from FRED – the St Louis Federal Reserve web site.

 

 

For the last four decades interest rates were trending downward. They bumped up a small amount from time to time, but they marched ever lower from the high teens in late 1981 to only 2.65% at the beginning of 2021. It is apparent that this four decade downtrend has now reversed, and that interest rates have begun a long term uptrend. As much as the declining cost of borrowing helped values increase the last forty years, won’t the reversed trend in interest rates have similar longer term negative impacts on real estate value?

So why is the definition of market value so hopelessly out of date? And why do appraisers not consider the impact of financing/leverage on market value? Clearly it matters!