“The good is often the enemy of the best.” (Bill W.) Traditional appraisal has been good. Up to just a few years ago, even at predictive methods and collateral risk conferences, I often heard the words: A real appraisal is the ‘gold standard’. What happened? Did appraisers suddenly get worse? I don’t think so. Appraisers […]
Most of us grew up learning two types of statistics — descriptive and inferential. Descriptive statistics provide summaries of any group, like the mean, the median, the range, the variance. It only got hard when we had to square a bunch of numbers, add them up, and then get out a slide rule (prior to […]
Appraisers have always worked with data. In the early days, we’d go to the county courthouse to examine the possible types available in the county recorder’s sales that might convert into useful “comps.” An experienced appraiser had a rough idea of what was being looked for, taking the first step in converting unsystematic data into […]
Part IV of VI: Data is data. It becomes useful in only two ways. Simple, huh? Appraisers and asset analysts add value to data by a systematic process. The analysis turns data into useful information. The information can then become knowledge, useful for making a decision. Analyst judgment is still required. The judgment is improved […]
Inference is defined as a conclusion reached on the basis of evidence and reasoning. I have often said the biggest problem with statistics is words. (The very word statistics is used in more than one meaning – often in a misleading way.)[1] So what is logical inference, and how is it different from statistical inference? […]
Data-driven is a buzz phrase. It can be useful. It can be counterproductive. “And in this corner we have . . .” It’s the appraisers versus the quants in the boxing ring. It turns out that people who are experts in a subject-matter field (appraisers for example) tend to discount the words “data-driven.” The experts […]
Judgment versus science. Judgment wins! (Part I of “Data Collection”) I have heard such things as “No science formula will ever replace my experience and training.” And “no AVM (Automated Valuation Model) will ever inspect a house.” Judgment wins. Except for one problem. The market share of valuations continues down for appraisers. AVMs, ‘evaluations’, broker […]
Editor’s Note: Are You Using Big Data in Appraisals? is a first-time Guest Post from John Fariss, MNAA. John is the owner of Fariss Appraisal Services located in Bakersfield, CA. He is a frequent contributor to George Dell’s Valuemetrics.Info classes and a Moderator for the Community of Asset Analysts©. Recently John wrote an extensive article […]