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Time Insanity?
Fun insanity — time adjustment requirements made simple. A concise market conditions guide and summary. Let’s outline the new GSE requirements: Time “adjustments” will be a required field, even if exactly zero! (Zero is a number.) Time-series analysis is an established method in economic measurement. The appraisal challenge is the varying relevant data sizes. The […]
Time-series or Garbage?
Time-series adjustments and market conditions are required by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. A recent FHFA research paper revealed that as few as 10% of appraisals had been even attempting a time adjustment, although in some markets, where the value was not “high enough,” the time adjustment came in handy to get closer to the […]
Solve Bias with Market Analysis? Pt 1
First, note that the time adjustment is core to market analysis. It is not about “comparing comps.” It quantifies two things. The change in: 1) the value of the dollar and, 2) market segment price levels. Reference: FHFA Working Paper 24-07: Disparities and Time Adjustments, the paper by William Doerner and Scott Susin (FHFA) relates […]
Critical Thinking and Thanks Giving?
How do we connect Thanks Giving with Critical Thinking? First, we can recognize gratitude (giving thanks) as a neuro-spiritual tool – with benefits. And we can recognize critical thinking as a tool towards good judgments and action. So how do we connect these seemingly detached (thanks and thinking) ideas? Critical thinking is a necessary part […]
A GSE Versus USPAP Conflict?
Recent GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) guidelines for appraisers and lenders make some assumptions. In particular we can use, for example, the requirements for market analysis and time adjustments. USPAP (Uniform Standards of Professional Practice) Rule 1-4 states that an appraiser must “collect, verify, and analyze all information…and must analyze such comparable sales data […]
Can Gen AI Solve the Adjustment Support Paradigm?
Gen AI is an emerging technology that has gone viral. But what actually is AI. The following was taken from a course offered by Coursera “AI Essentials”. “To begin this AI journey, let’s start by examining what the term artificial intelligence really means. In this context, intelligence refers to the human ability to perform cognitive tasks. […]
Time for Time Adjustment? pt 3
A time adjustment is needed because all our sales data is historical. A sale price 6 months ago cannot be properly reflected in today’s dollars. Two parts. Two components. Two reasons: The value of the dollar has changed. The competing market price level has changed. Editor’s Note: This blog is part 3 on the Time […]
The Adjustment Fallacy? pt.1
Recently, Keith Wolf (representing Freddie Mac), coined a new term for claims about adjustments, calling it the “adjustment fallacy.” Adjustments to comparables first arrived on the scene as a way of explaining differences between the subject property and a compared comp. (A way to ‘support’ an opinion comparison.) In theory, an adjustment is supposed to […]
Does the AI Need AI?
Should the AI (Appraisal Institute) teach AI (Artificial Intelligence)? This is Part 2 on the Series of the Appraisal Institute and Artificial Intelligence. Read Part 1 here. AI tools, such as ChatGPT, depend on prior knowledge being published somewhere out there in the cloud. Somewhere. The AI (the education provider) continues to emphasize the supremacy […]
UAD URAR Threat, Opportunity, or Confusion? pt2
The new UAD and URAR come on together. In this second part, we prepare to look at possible unintended consequences. (Catch up and read part 1 here.) In later continuing parts, we will look at how the URAR/UAD format “dynamic” may affect users: appraisers, lenders, AMCs, and others. Finally, we might look at how the […]
New UAD: Threat, Opportunity, or Confusion?
The upcoming UAD (Uniform Appraisal Dataset) was part of my presentation at the CRN (Collateral Risk Network) meeting at an appraiser conference in Las Vegas. The CRN panel was from a workgroup. That workgroup effort is for lender and AMC “readiness” for appraisal acquisition (ordering). This UAD topic is intertwined with the new integrated URAR […]
Technology: Buy or Sell?
Around every corner, someone wants appraiser’s to buy their technology. We get techhype – buy our wonderful . . . “Prove your adjustments.” “Bulletproof your reports.” Technology of computers and especially software. “Buy our most clever delivery product.” We started with electric typewriters and adding machines. Then calculators (like the hp12c) and fast dot-matrix printers. […]
Is Thinking Necessary?
Appraisers are taught that there are three “approaches” to value. Follow the path, and you are safe. Standards, regulations, users, and peers all expect the “process” to be followed. Follow it, and you are safe. Appraisers are also harangued to be ethical and unbiased. Just be “impartial, independent, and objective.” No problem. Problem. Appraisers are […]
Appraisal Back to the Future?
Should appraisal practice go back to original historical principles? Yes! Is the appraisal “body of knowledge” now well established — and finally in place? We here have long campaigned for the profession to “get with it” and start teaching modern methods. Modern methods include artificial intelligence, data science, and critical thinking processes needed to supplement […]
An Accurate Appraisal?
What is an “accurate” appraisal? First, we note that in Standard 1 of USPAP (Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice), accuracy is not required. What is required is that an appraisal be credible, or “worthy of belief.” Perhaps reviewers know how to judge “accuracy.” Good news. Standard 3 does say specifically that the reviewer must […]